However, what will also alarm many Conservatives are the signs of very significant Liberal Democrat gains in their affluent heartlands, the so-called blue wall, often home to senior Tory MPs. This figure could well change, but expect it to be raised repeatedly, even though a much better metric will be academic extrapolations of what the results would mean as a national vote share, due before the weekend. The first is that Labour appears to be doing what is required: regaining control in bellwether councils like Plymouth and Stoke-on-Trent, and on course to take Medway.Ĭonservative spinners, and anxious Keir Starmer-sceptical Labour MPs, will note that so far the projected Labour vote share lead over the Tories is about eight percentage points, not the 10 billed by some as the margin needed to be confident of a general election majority. If you are a Conservative MP worried about the next general election, the results thus far will bring two causes for concern.

To lose even more – and it could be considerably more – is quite a feat. The last time these seats were contested in 2019, Theresa May was at the nadir of her Brexit woes, weeks from announcing her departure from Downing Street, and her party lost more than 1,300 seats. But one thing is already clear, even with just a fraction of the 8,000-plus seats up for grabs across 230 councils so far decided, by any normal political metric this is shaping up to be another electoral kicking for the Conservatives.

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